AL East Preview: The Death Star is Fully Operational
Fore The Record returns with a 2020 MLB season preview. First up, the American League East.
Reader, it feels so good to be back.
To say the absolute least, things are weird right now. A pandemic, the loudest call to end racial injustice, police brutality and systemic racism in my lifetime, and just yesterday, a bombshell report exposing the atrocious culture with the Washington NFL team’s organization.
Plain and simple, 2020 sucks.
This year has been so crazy that it has led me back here. To be honest, when I first created this in 2018, I certainly didn’t think I’d be writing on here in the summer of 2020.
But here we are, in a world entirely different and heading towards a future entirely unknown.
However, in a time of great uncertainty, 2020 has provided the opportunity to create content in the manner of my choosing. So yes, here we are. Back to my roots: writing, and writing about baseball.
The American League East is the perfect place to begin a Major League Baseball 2020 preview. No division provides a more dichotomous look at the balance of power and ways of thinking in the league. At the top lies the New York Yankees, which, besides a brief period in the mid-2010s, are the prime example of always trying to win. And on the other end of the spectrum, you find the Baltimore Orioles, which for so many fans and pundits are the laughing stock of the league and the punching bag when it comes to trashing organizations and criticizing the “tanking” phenomenon (this is where I remind everyone that from 2012–2016, the Orioles had the best record in the American League). Anyway, despite not deserving nearly the amount of hate they receive, the Orioles are indeed at the bottom of the totem pole in 2020, not only in the East but in the entire league. For now, this is the Yankees division, until someone takes it from them.
1. New York Yankees
How could it be anyone else? Certainly not after that introduction. The Yankees benefit from the seventh easiest schedule in baseball after MLB released the revised schedule, according to The Athletic’s Tim Britton’s methodology. They get the Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays 10 times each, and the Miami Marlins for three games. They have one of the strongest rotations in baseball, headlined by offseason addition Gerrit Cole, and reliable arms throughout a stout bullpen. Their lineup is even more fearsome, with a healthy Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton leading the way alongside DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres. The Bronx Bombers are once again the class of the American League. It’s a shame, really.
Player to Watch: Gleyber Torres
I was so tempted to go with Aaron Judge here, believe me, but I love Torres’ talent too much to pass him up. Let Torres hit against the Orioles and he is the best player ever. He homered 13 times, hit .394 and had an OPS of 1.512 (!!) against Baltimore last year. For the advanced stats crowd, he accumulated a staggering .584 wOBA and a 279 wRC+ — all in 18 games against the O’s. Even legendary broadcaster Gary Thorne couldn’t believe what he was seeing.
I’m all in on Torres. He finished 2019 with 38 home runs and an .871 OPS. Torres is a star in the making, and I can’t wait to see what he does, especially in a bizarre, shortened season.
Pitcher to Watch: Masahiro Tanaka
Tanaka finally got his second All-Star nod last year, but his massive potential has only been seen in shorts stints, balanced out by injuries and struggles since his arrival in New York from Japan. At his best, Tanaka looks like an ace, with a wipeout slider and a biting splitter.
If Tanaka is on, the Yankees have a potentially terrifying 1–2 punch at the top of the rotation with Cole and Tanaka. Add southpaws James Paxton and J.A. Happ and 2019 standout Domingo Germán, and that’s almost as good as it gets.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are the epitome of the underdog. Consistently a team with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, Tampa Bay also consistently has a perennial winner. Erik Neander and Kevin Cash are two of baseball’s best innovators, constantly revolutionizing baseball strategy, most notably with introducing the concept of the “opener.” But this Rays team may not even need to reach into Neander’s and Cash’s bag of tricks. The talent is abundant, from All-Stars Blake Snell and Charlie Morton to rising stars in Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow. They have the 10th easiest schedule according to Britton, and PECOTA’s projections give them a 52.1% chance to make the playoffs.
Player to Watch: Austin Meadows
It would feel weird writing about anyone else. Willy Adames, Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Lowe would all be good options, but Meadows is clearly driving the ship in Tampa. Meadows was a highly touted prospect working his way through the Pittsburgh Pirates farm system before being shipped off to Tampa in the Chris Archer trade in 2018. Meadows responded by blossoming into a bonafide star, hammering 33 home runs and amassing a whopping 142 wRC+, the 11th best total in the big leagues last season. He’ll likely miss the beginning of the season following a positive COVID-19 test.
Pitcher to Watch: Brendan McKay
It’s hard not to pick one of the Rays’ filthy relievers like Chaz Roe or Diego Alvarez (seriously, go look up Roe’s slider and Alvarez’s sinker — disgusting). But the former fourth overall pick is so intriguing. He’s yet to return to summer camp following a recent departure, but with expanded rosters and tight schedule turnarounds, he has the chance to be an impact arm for the Rays in 2020. McKay started 11 games last season and, to be completely honest, kind of got shelled, but banking on his potential feels like a good bet. His strikeout percentage (K%) would have ranked 21st among qualified pitchers, right behind some dude named Clayton Kershaw.
3. Boston Red Sox
The gap between second and third in this division feels significant. The Sox will be Mookie-less for the first time since 2013, and will have to navigate the 60-game slate without their ace Chris Sale, who underwent Tommy John surgery in March. Both FanGraphs and PECOTA project Boston to hover right around .500, which would effectively eliminate teams in any normal year. But, as we know, this one is far from normal, so expect the Red Sox to be in the thick of the Wild Card race, like many teams will be in late September. And with a short season, it’s entirely possible that one player could push a team to the postseason with a few clutch performances. Someone like Rafael Devers or Xander Boegarts could be the difference between playing in October and watching from the couch.
Player to Watch: Alex Verdugo
Alex Verdugo, come on down! Someone has to replace Mookie, and Verdugo will be the first tasked with filling his shoes, as enormous as they might be. Verdugo comes over from Los Angeles in the same trade that sent Betts to the Dodgers, where Dugie hit .294 and clubbed 12 home runs in 101 games before missing the remainder of the season due to injuries. He may never live up to Betts’ offensive prowess, though it’s fair to say Verdugo never got a fair shake in Los Angeles, as he was battling for playing time with the rest of the Dodgers endless depth. He rarely strikes out (a 13.0% strikeout rate would have ranked 12th among qualified hitters), but it’s his defense that is most valuable. He totaled a DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) of 14, second best behind MVP outfielder Cody Bellinger. While Jackie Bradley Jr. will maintain his spot in center field, look for Verdugo to assume Betts’ old spot in right.
Pitcher to Watch: Eduardo Rodriguez
I thought I would always remember Rodriguez as the prospect the Orioles traded to Boston for Andrew Miller back in 2014. Now, he will likely be forever etched in my brain as the guy who slammed his glove on the ground after giving up a three-run home run to Yasiel Puig in Game 4 of the 2018 World Series. Back to 2020. I realize that Nathan Eovaldi is on track to start on Opening Day, but Rodriguez needs to be a reliable number two if the Red Sox want any chance at returning to the playoffs. He’s currently recovering from the coronavirus, so it’s probable that he won’t even be with the team by Opening Day. But he was Boston’s best starter in 2019, and must continue that form this year in order to get the Sox to October.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
My goodness, this team is going to be so much fun in a couple of years. Many of their youngsters got their first taste of big league ball last year, and each flashed brilliance at times. And somehow they all seem to be descendants of baseball royalty? Guerrero, Biggio, Bichette — it’s like the North has gone full Back to the Future. And the pitching is on its way, with prized prospect Nate Pearson set to make his debut at some point this season. This team is still a year or two away, but they have a young core in place that could make them contenders for a nice stretch in the near future. For now, however, they might not even play in Toronto this season.
Player to Watch: Cavan Biggio
Look, Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr. got all the buzz last year — and rightfully so — but Biggio led Jays hitters in fWAR last season at 2.4 wins above replacement. That isn’t earth shattering by any means, and Bichette only played in 46 games, but Biggio was still a focal point on offense last year. Couple that fWAR with an absolutely ridiculous 16.5% walk rate, which would have tied for fourth among all qualified hitters, behind only Mike Trout, Yasmani Grandal and Alex Bregman, and you’ve got yourself a pretty good player. In 2018, he was one of six minor leaguers to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases. Bichette and Guerrero Jr. may have more “star potential,” but I’ll be keeping an eye on Biggio to improve over the course of the season.
Pitcher to Watch: Nate Pearson
I mentioned him earlier, but it’s worth repeating: Pearson can be an impact player immediately. The 23-year-old just has the stuff. He was hitting 100 mph on his fastball in spring training, and told MLB Network Radio that he spent the time off improving his offspeed pitches and overall command. He likely will still suffer from some expected service time manipulation (ugh), but when he arrives, he will be electric.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Ah yes, the O’s. The poor, poor O’s. Empty seats at Camden Yards may have been a reality even without an ongoing pandemic. Modern Orioles fans are all too familiar with dark times. Just ask any of them about the 2000s. Yikes. Things will be tough in Baltimore, and while the franchise gets more flak than it deserves, it’s hard to convince people that you’re trying to win after the roster purge that took place during and following the 2018 season. But, like any rebuilding team, there are glimmers of hope — moments, players and promises that make fans believe there is light at the end of the tunnel. Adley Rutschman, the Orioles’ 2019 first round pick, is that glimmer. But he will likely not arrive at Eutaw Street until 2021 at the earliest, having only reached Single-A Delmarva last season. Luckily for those in favor of tanking (how many are there, exactly?), the Orioles are projected to have the most difficult schedule, according to Britton’s numbers. Expect the Orioles to finish at or near the bottom of the entire league. Hope — no, pray — that they win 20 games. Because if they don’t…yikes.
Player to Watch: Ryan Mountcastle
Mountcastle will likely be the first in a new wave of top prospects coming through the Orioles system to reach the majors. A powerful slugger from Florida, Mountcastle was drafted in the first round by the Orioles in 2015 as a shortstop, but has moved around a ton in the minors. The O’s have experimented with him at third base, first base and left field, but haven’t quite found the place that is most comfortable. (If you’re sensing a theme here, dear reader, you’re right. Trey Mancini, Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo all have similar makeups to Mountcastle. Classic Orioles.) The kid has some pop, hammering 25 homers and hitting .312 in Norfolk in 2019 en route to winning the International League Most Valuable Player award. Baltimore will take any ray of sunshine it can get right now, and in 2020, Mountcastle, along with his fabulous last name, might just be it.
Pitcher to Watch: Hunter Harvey
Woof. Finding the right pitcher was even tougher than the position player. Top prospects D.L. Hall and Grayson Rodriguez are probably a year or two away, and choosing the O’s lone 2019 All-Star John Means would’ve been too easy. There are a few creative selections that could have been made (Kohl Stewart, the Minnesota Twins’ 2013 first round pick who never really panned out; Keegan Akin, a left-handed prospect who has seen success in the minors and is expected to make his debut soon; Michael Baumann, who threw a no-hitter last year in Double-A; and Dean Kremer, who had a 2.98 in 15 starts in Double-A in 2019), but Harvey gets the nod here for his age (25) and his electric stuff. A former first round pick and once thought to be a future ace, Harvey has suffered multiple setbacks in his pro career, including undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016. But he’s healthy again, and while he only has seven appearances under his major league belt, he proved he could hang with the big boys, compiling a 1.42 ERA over 6.1 innings. He’s moved to the bullpen, but he has the velocity, the movement and even the hair to become an effective reliever for Baltimore in the future. The Orioles, like all rebuilding teams, will be looking for sparks in an otherwise gloomy season. Harvey is my pick on the bump.
Well, that’s the AL East. The Yanks are once again the team to beat. The Orioles are not. The AL Central preview drops tomorrow. See you then.
P.S. One more thing. Major League Baseball should drop local blackouts so everyone can watch his, her or their favorite team in 2020.
Stats and information courtesy of FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus.
Ethan Fore is a diehard Dodgers fan who just wants to see his team win. Once. Please. You can follow him on Twitter here.
