AL West Preview: The Elephant in the Room
Fore The Record returns with a 2020 MLB season preview. Next, the American League West.
No joke, the AL West might be my favorite division in baseball. Perhaps this is my “west coast bias” talking, but the West has always lived up to its “wild” folklore. From crazy division title finishes to intense yet unfamiliar rivalries, the West has all the components of a top division in Major League Baseball.
And 2020 is no different. The Houston Astros, the division’s newest member, has seen an extremely impressive string of success in recent seasons, only to be marred by the biggest scandal since the Steroid Era. The Oakland Athletics, a personal favorite to watch, constantly fit the underdog, chip-on-the-shoulder model, years after Moneyball. The Los Angeles Angels feature baseball’s best player and one of the game’s most notable international players. The Texas Rangers have a storied history, albeit one that lacks an elusive World Series title. And the Seattle Mariners have a little piece of baseball history to their own: the lone team without a Fall Classic appearance. Sorry, M’s fans. Not sure this will be the year. But hey, baseball is weird. 60-game-season baseball will be weirder.
1. Oakland Athletics
OK, OK. Before you go crazy, hear me out. Yes, the Astros are the clear favorite and widely regarded as one of the best teams in baseball entering the season. PECOTA gives Houston a 68.5% chance to win the division. But the A’s are the next team up, projected to finish three games behind the Astros by FanGraphs. Three games would feel small in a normal year, but with a 60-game schedule, three games is enormous. But there’s something special about Oakland. They beat the odds like Han Solo flying the Millennium Falcon in Empire. There is good reason to believe it, too. A loaded roster with up-and-coming prospects and established stars puts Oakland in a perfect position to win its first division title in seven years.
Player to Watch: Marcus Semien
There are a ton of fun guys on the A’s. Matt Chapman is the best fielder in baseball (34 DRS led MLB in 2019); his corner-infielding counterpart Matt Olsen is pretty good himself; and Ramon Laureano and Matt Cahna are two of the most underrated players in the game. Plus, Sean Murphy, one of baseball’s best catching prospects, will likely assume the full-time role in 2020. But Marcus Semien stands out, being that he’s probably the best player you’ve never heard of. Semien led the team in fWAR and finished fifth in MLB, behind superstars Mike Trout, Alex Bregman, Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger. Last season, he hit 33 home runs, totaled a wRC+ of 137 and struck out in just 13.2% of plate appearances, the lowest mark of his career. He finished third in AL MVP voting, but somehow does not have an All-Star appearance to his name, in part due to the logjam at the shortstop position. Semien has consistently improved throughout his career, and, entering a contract year, should produce another impactful season.
Pitcher to Watch: Jesús Luzardo
This is the guy. Luzardo, if fully healthy, will give Luis Robert a run for his money in the AL Rookie of the Year race. Luzardo came from Washington in the trade that sent Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nationals, and met high expectations upon arrival step for step. Luzardo finished 2018 with a 2.88 ERA across three leagues, and despite battling injuries in 2019, commanded a 3.19 ERA in AAA before being called up in September to help Oakland clinch a Wild Card spot. Luzardo mixes his pitches well, throwing four pitches at least 19.9% of the time, according to Statcast. His fastball and changeup project to be his best pitches at the next level, according to MLB Pipeline, but his command of his breaking balls will set him apart from the rest of the pack.
2. Houston Astros
So, FanGraphs and PECOTA both project the Astros to win the division by a few games. But what if, and hear me out, the Asterisks are not as good at baseball when they’re not cheating? And you might say, “what about their road splits?” OK, fair enough. Houston wasn’t significantly worse in any batting category when playing away from Minute Maid Park, but they also scored 58 fewer runs on the road. For reference, the Dodgers, the second best regular-season team in baseball last year, scored four more runs on the road. If you’re looking for advanced stats, Houston had the highest wRC+ at home (136), a stat that adjusts run creation for specific parks. They had the third highest wRC+ on the road (114) — a difference of 22! The difference for the Dodgers? 14. I’m not saying, I’m just saying. On the roster side of things, the Astros return most of their impact bats from their 2019 team, but lose a major asset in starting pitcher Gerrit Cole. And they’re lucky they don’t have to face a 2020 season with fans. Oh, how I would’ve loved to hear those boos.
Player to Watch: Kyle Tucker
Yordan Álvarez is currently not with the team due to reasons unknown outside the Astros organization, and manager Dusty Baker said Friday that he would turn to Tucker to fill his role. Houston’s abundance of talent has kept Tucker waiting for an opportunity to get regular playing time, but if Álvarez remains out, that time may finally come. The left-handed-hitting outfielder has a career batting average just over the Mendoza Line, but was drafted fifth overall in 2015 and absolutely crushed pitchers in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League in 2018 and 2019. Just 23, Tucker can play himself into an everyday role with this fantastic opportunity and become another young stud in a loaded Astros lineup.
Pitcher to Watch: Lance McCullers Jr.
McCullers has some big shoes to fill in Cole’s absence. He’s coming off Tommy John surgery too, which will make any fan or coach grit their teeth, hoping he doesn’t reinjure his elbow. Expectations won’t be as high as they will be for his teammates Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, but they are 37 and 36, respectively, so time is running out before McCullers becomes the ace of the staff. At his best, McCullers is a sub-three ERA guy that relies heavily on ground-ball outs. He uses his curveball most often, but mixes his sinker and changeup well to generate weakly hit balls. Houston needs McCullers to perform well if they want to retain division supremacy and get back to the World Series.
3. Los Angeles Angels
You know, one of these days, the sports world will be blessed with watching Mike Trout play meaningful baseball in October. Los Angeles missed on signing Cole in the offseason, but landed the next biggest fish: third baseman and hitting machine Anthony Rendon. FanGraphs gives the Angels 25.4% chance to reach the postseason, while PECOTA is more optimistic, projecting a 36.7% chance. Though the lineup features stars old and new, it will be the pitching staff that will make or break this Angels team. The Angels improved over the offseason. Will the American League be too deep for them to break through?
Player to Watch: Jo Adell
Another consensus top-five prospect in baseball, Adell will at long last take the field at Angel Stadium alongside Mike Trout. Rejoice, baseball fans. Drafted in the first round back in 2017, Adell dashed through the Angels’ minor league system, reaching Triple-A by age 20 and tallying two Futures Game appearances. He still strikes out a bit too much, but his bat has come along to join his impressive glove, arm and speed. His power will grow too. At age 21, he has plenty of time to add muscle and make those doubles turn into home runs. Just ask Manny Machado. Sure, he will likely see the dreaded service time manipulation, but I’d be stunned if he doesn’t make his MLB debut in 2020.
Pitcher to Watch: Shohei Ohtani
I’m going to cheat a bit here, because Ohtani is a player to watch as well. At the plate, Angels hitting coach says that Ohtani is “the best I’ve ever seen him.” He has yet to play a full season, but in his first two big league campaigns, he hit 22 home runs in 2018 and 18 in 2019, all while battling nagging injuries. Now, finally healthy, we might see a real power surge. On the bump, Ohtani returns after taking a year off following Tommy John surgery in October of 2018. Ohtani has electric stuff, and overwhelmed hitters at times in 2018. And he wasn’t even fully healthy then either. The Angels currently plan to have him pitch every Sunday. Regardless of start date, the two-way threat will draw a lot of eyes each time he’s on the mound.
4. Texas Rangers
Chris Woodward will lead the Rangers to the playoffs…eventually. 2020 likely won’t be that year. If it is, it almost certainly will be because GM Jon Daniels traded for starting pitcher and former Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber in the offseason. Kluber joins a surprisingly good staff that includes Lance Lynn and Mike Minor. Daniels also signed Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles to round out a rotation that could be among the best in baseball if all goes right. That’s a big “if,” however. FanGraphs projects 28 wins for Texas, while PECOTA projects one fewer. A hot streak might push them into contention, but this lineup probably needs more juice to make that happen.
Player to Watch: Nick Solak
Joey Gallo would’ve been too easy. Solak saw only 135 plate appearances after being called up in August of last year, but made the most of it, tallying a slash line of .293/.393/.491 and a wRC+ total of 126. Plus, he has the wheels and the defensive versatility to thrive in today’s game, a trait Woodward with which is familiar from his time as the third base coach for the Los Angeles Dodgers. That versatility and athleticism should allow for him to see an increase in playing time in 2020.
Pitcher to Watch: Corey Kluber
Kluber came over from Cleveland after an injury-plagued season, and turned 34 in April. He may not ever regain his Cy Young, ace-like form, but if Kluber performs well in 2020, that trade will be a steal. The Rangers need him to do so, as they face the seventh toughest schedule, according to The Athletic’s Tim Britton’s numbers. It’s not nearly out of the question to expect him to bounce back. Kluber dominated hitters in 2018, posting a 2.89 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 215 innings. He favors his cutter over his four-seam fastball, and mixes in a sinker and a sharp curveball effectively. Mid-thirties is typically when pitchers start to fade, but Kluber is the key to a successful season at the brand new Globe Life Field.
5. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have not made the playoffs in 18 years. That 2001 season was memorable for so many reasons, as Seattle tied the MLB record for wins in a season with 116, and Ichiro took the league by storm in his debut, winning both the AL Rookie of the Year and AL MVP. Unfortunately for Mariners fans, 2020 will almost certainly not be the year that streak is broken. But the future is bright in the Pacific Northwest, with a very intriguing farm system for the first time in a long time. Top prospects Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Logan Gilbert are all a year or more away from debuting at T-Mobile Park, but when they arrive, they could turn the Mariners into a powerhouse. Just look at Kelenic’s swing — perfection.
Player to Watch: Evan White
The Mariners inked White to a six-year deal in the offseason despite White having never seen a major league pitch. That should be a pretty clear indicator that Jerry Dipoto & co. expect White to be their first baseman of the future. He’s got a very good hit tool, but what makes him one of the 60 best prospects in baseball is his glove. He hit .293 with 18 home runs in Double-A last year to go along with a .838 OPS. He committed just five errors in 2019 and four in 2018. White should finally bring some stability to a position that has been anything but stable in Seattle. Kyle Lewis, an outfield prospect who hit six home runs in 71 at-bats last season, is also a guy to keep an eye on.
Pitcher to Watch: Justus Sheffield
The headline prospect in deals that sent Andrew Miller from New York to Cleveland and James Paxton from Seattle to New York, Sheffield has yet to find solid ground in the majors. In just 36 innings last year, Sheffield allowed 44 hits, 18 walks and 22 runs. Not exactly what you want to see from a frontline starter. But Sheffield, 24, will likely be given every opportunity to prove that 2019 was a fluke, and he can regain his top form. When he’s on, he has a slider that makes hitters absolutely melt. If he can increase his command of his pitches, he could very well bounce back nicely and slide into an established role in the Mariners’ rotation.
Was that one shorter? I tried to make it shorter. It probably wasn’t. There’s just so much good information to share! Anyway, we’re onto the Senior Circuit tomorrow.
P.S. Major League Baseball should drop local blackouts so everyone can watch his, her or their favorite team in 2020.
Stats and information courtesy of FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com.
Ethan Fore is a diehard Dodgers fan who just wants to see his team win. Once. Please. You can follow him on Twitter here.
