NL Central Preview: Return of the Big Red Machine
Fore The Record returns with a 2020 MLB season preview. Next, the National League Central.
The NL Central provides yet another ultra-competitive division heading into the 2020 season. Like the NL East, four teams will be striving for the division title, as the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds all have playoff-caliber rosters. It’s a division that has been the most successful in the past decade in the National League, sending 19 teams to the playoffs in that span. According to FanGraphs, the top four teams each have at least a 32.6% chance to reach the postseason. A 60-game schedule and an increasingly competitive NL could make it hard to send more than one team to the playoffs, but the division is nonetheless deep. Plus, interleague matchups and a Cardinals-Brewers series on the final weekend should set up a wild finish.
1. Cincinnati Reds
We’ve reached perhaps my boldest take of the 2020 season preview. I am all in on this Reds team. Cincinnati saw an opportunity this past offseason to strike while the iron was hot and take advantage of a wide-open division, and did exactly that. GM Nick Krall signed Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Shogo Akiyama, Pedro Strop and Wade Miley in the winter, adding to a talented roster that is fully ready to contend in 2020. The rotation will be the headliner, with Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer leading the way, but the lineup and bullpen are both quietly good. A strong mix of veterans like Castellanos, Eugenio Suarez and Joey Votto and young players such as Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker will round out a powerful lineup. The Athletic’s Tim Britton’s calculations indicate the Reds will have the sixth easiest strength of schedule in baseball this season, further cementing their status as a true contender. They’ll break an eight-year division-title drought in 2020.
Player to Watch: Eugenio Suarez
Welcome back to another addition of “the best player you’ve never heard of.” I’m higher on Suarez than most, but he is a hitting machine. Only NL Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso homered more times in 2019 than Suarez (49 HR), who accumulated a slash line of .271/.358/.572 and an isolated power rating of .301, seventh best in baseball. His barrel percentage ranked in the 92nd percentile among major league hitters, according to Statcast, and averaged an exit velocity of 89.8 mph and a launch angle of 17.3º. Suarez strikes out at a high clip, and his defense can be a bit of a liability, but his power numbers speak for themselves. Expect Suarez to be near the top of the power charts once again this season.
Honorable mention goes to Castellanos, who will get to DH for Cincinnati thanks to the special rules this season and absolutely mash at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Seriously. Dude is going to be a tank.
Pitcher to Watch: Luis Castillo
Castillo was traded four times before reaching the majors, which is astonishing for anyone, really, but especially bizarre for someone of his caliber. After some ups and downs in his first two seasons, Castillo broke out in 2019, amassing an ERA- of 76, a FIP- of 81, an fWAR of 4.1 and a K% of 28.9% in 190.2 innings. He mixes his pitches well, resulting in the second best ground-ball rate in baseball last season. His whiff percentage and xSLG against rank in the 94th and 93rd percentile, according to Statcast. And he throws one of the best changeups in baseball. It’s possible he could regress to the mean, but his potential, thanks to his incredible pitch movement, makes him a true contender for the Cy Young Award.
2. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have slowly regressed since their curse-ending World Series win in 2016. After losing in the NLCS in 2017 and faltering in the Wild Card Game in 2018, Chicago fell short of the playoffs in 2019, winning just 84 games. As a result, manager Joe Maddon’s contract was not renewed, ending a five-year era at Wrigley Field. The newly-hired David Ross will have to navigate a brutal division and reinvigorate a bullpen that lost more games than it won. The core that ended the 108-year drought is still mostly intact, and there is still enough talent to get back to the postseason, but the window for this group is closing.
Player to Watch: Nico Hoerner
Hoerner, 22, likely won’t start on Opening Day, but if he produces and Jason Kipnis struggles early, the Stanford product could very well assume the everyday role at second base in David Ross’ lineup. Hoerner, MLB Pipeline’s current top prospect in the Cubs farm system, also offers a lot of versatility in the field, having experience at both middle infield positions and in the outfield. His power will always be his weak spot, and he needs to become more disciplined at the plate, but he makes consistent contact and could very well become an above-average hitter. His fielding versatility will always be his biggest strength, so if he can produce even a bit more at the plate, he’ll be a great asset for the Cubs in 2020.
Pitcher to Watch: Craig Kimbrel
The Cubs bullpen was certainly the biggest reason why they missed the playoffs in 2019 after recording four straight postseason appearances. For reference, their offense and starting rotation each ranked in the top-10 for fWAR, while their relievers ranked 20th. Not exactly ideal. But it is precisely the reason the Cubs signed relievers Jeremy Jeffress, Ryan Tepera and Dan Winkler over the offseason. But it will all come back to Kimbrel, who was a shell of his former self, surrendering 15 runs in 20.2 innings. He was literally the worst reliever on the team, holding a fWAR of -1.1. Terrible. But we do know that Kimbrel can be as unhittable as they come. Chicago needs him to be that.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
There’s something about Wisconsin. As soon as you count any of their teams out, they pull you right back in. That’s the vibe I’m sensing this season from the Brewers. After securing the best record in the National League in 2018, they lost a heartbreaker in the NL Wild Card Game to the eventual World Series champion Washington Nationals. Now? People seem to be doubting their chances. Predicting them to finish third in the division isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement, but I don’t see them finishing below this spot, as PECOTA projects. Christian Yelich is still a force at the plate, and the bullpen, led by Josh Hader and Brent Suter, should stay reliable. It’ll be the rotation that will make or break this team.
Player to Watch: Keston Hiura
A former top prospect, Hiura finally got his shot in the big leagues in 2019 and immediately found success. He slashed .303/.368/.570 over 348 plate appearances, homering 19 times and tallying 23 doubles. In the advanced stats realm, Hiura compiled a .388 wOBA with a 139 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR. He did strike out 107 times, and collected only 25 walks, but the talent at the plate is absolutely there. In a “full” season, Hiura, 23, should assume a larger role and become the full-time second baseman in the Brewers lineup.
Pitcher to Watch: Adrian Houser
Who? Remember that trade that sent Josh Hader to Milwaukee and Carlos Gomez to Houston? Houser was part of that deal. And while his name may not pop off the page, and you may be thinking to yourself, “wait, he’s not even the best starter on the team,” let me share with you some fun facts, as explained by MLB.com’s Mike Petrellio. He was one of four pitchers last year to throw 100 innings, garner a strikeout rate of 25% or higher and a ground-ball rate of 50% or higher. The other three? Stephen Strasburg, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray. You’ve probably heard of those guys if you’re reading something like this (you’ve definitely heard of Castillo if you made it this far). Brandon Woodruff is still the go-to guy for Craig Counsell, but Houser has the stuff to work his way into an impactful role.
4. St. Louis Cardinals
This is pretty low for a defending division champion. But, um, what exactly did John Mozeliak and the Cardinals do this offseason? Let’s see, they lost Marcell Ozuna and José Martínez…and signed reliever Kwang-Hyun Kim? All due respect to Kim, who dominated hitters in the KBO last year, but St. Louis took a step backwards after winning the Central rather unconvincingly in 2019. Many of those same pieces remain, but while the Reds, Cubs and Brewers made some potentially key offseason moves, St. Louis rested on its laurels. Let’s see if it pays off for them.
Player to Watch: Dylan Carlson
OK, so this is the reason the Cardinals let Ozuna walk and did nothing about it. Carlson, the Cardinals’ top-ranked prospect and the 17th overall in MLB, according to MLB Pipeline, was the star of Spring Training and has continued to stand out in Summer Camp. Carlson hit 26 homers and stole 20 bases in 2019 while playing in both Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .292/.372/.542 to boot. The switch-hitting outfielder has grades 55 or higher in every category, according to MLB Pipeline’s evaluations, and at age 21, he has torn through the minors. Of course, being that young, the Cardinals could easily keep him sidelined, especially considering how crowded the outfield already is. But I’d be shocked if the Cardinals didn’t give Carlson a chance, especially if St. Louis needs a spark midway through the season.
Pitcher to Watch: Jack Flaherty
How uninspired of me. But in my own defense, how could it be anyone else? Flaherty was other-worldly in the second half last season, compiling a 21 ERA- (league average is 100), the best in baseball in the second half, and a 27.6% K-BB%, sixth in MLB. Utterly dominant. Compare that to his first half, and it’s night and day. His ERA-, 109, was 69th out of 78 qualified pitchers in the first half of the season. Flaherty played a massive role in getting the Cardinals back to the postseason, and after being given the start on Opening Day by Mike Schildt, he’s expected to handle ace status once again in 2020.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
You really have to feel for Pirates fans, who watched their team win the second most games in all of MLB from 2013–2015, only to witness two playoff wins and their team never get past the divisional round. They haven’t even won a division title since 1992, when they were in the National League East. Brutal. Since that 2015 Wild Card Game defeat, the Pirates have been in steady decline, retooling as they await another window of opportunity. Such is the life of a small market team. And they haven’t exactly been very clever in this stretch of struggle. The trade that sent Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz to Tampa Bay for Chris Archer looks worse and worse by the day. And things may get tougher before they get better, too. The Athletic’s Tim Britton projects Pittsburgh to have the 10th toughest strength of schedule in 2020. Luckily for Pirates fans, the farm system has some solid pieces, such as Mitch Keller, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz, that could very well contribute to the team’s next playoff contender. Hope will rise anew at PNC Park. It’s only a matter of time.
Player to Watch: Josh Bell
Man, I’m really dropping the ball on the creativity in this one. Outfielder Bryan Reynolds seems more likely to be a part of the next great Pirates team, but Bell could have a monster year (relatively, of course). He displays ridiculous power, crushing 37 home runs in 2019, with his longest one going 474 feet, ninth best in baseball last season, according to Statcast. He also reached career highs in exit velocity and hard hit percentage, and was ranked in the 88th and 92nd percentile for barrel percentage and xwOBA. Bell’s value, from the Pirates’ perspective, really comes in his trade value. He’ll be eligible for free agency following the 2022 season, but a big year could attract quite a few potential suitors in the offseason, allowing Pittsburgh to further stock its farm system in preparation for a brighter future.
Pitcher to Watch: Mitch Keller
OK, now we’re back on track. Keller ranks as the Pirates’ best prospect and MLB’s 39th best, according to MLB Pipeline. He has the pitch arsenal to be a future №2 starter, featuring a fastball that can hit 98 mph on the radar gun and a slider-curveball combination that can be effective due to a strong spin rate. But his command has held him back from truly tapping into his full potential. Keller struggled quite a bit in 2019, compiling a grotesque ERA- of 165. He did strike out 28.6% of batters faced, but he allowed 41 runs and 72 hits in just 48 innings last season. He has to do a better job of limiting hard contact. If he can, he will show vast improvement in 2020.
Honorable mention to Jameson Taillon, who underwent his second Tommy John surgery in August of last year. He was the second overall pick of the 2010 draft and defeated testicular cancer in 2017. He’ll miss all of 2020, but I’m rooting for him to succeed in the future. With a story like his, it’s hard not to.
And just like that, we’ve reached the home stretch. The NL West preview will arrive tomorrow. See you then.
P.S. Major League Baseball should drop local blackouts so everyone can watch his, her or their favorite team in 2020.
Stats and information courtesy of FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com.
Ethan Fore is a diehard Dodgers fan who just wants to see his team win. Once. Please. You can follow him on Twitter here.
