NL West Preview: The Rich Get Richer
Fore The Record returns with a 2020 MLB season preview. Lastly, the National League West.
Well, we’ve arrived at our final division preview of the 2020 season. And, with all due respect to the other four teams in the division, this may be the most boring one I’ll write. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the overwhelming favorites to win their eighth straight division title, currently the third-longest streak in MLB history. No team in baseball, according to both FanGraphs and PECOTA projections, has a better chance at winning its division than Los Angeles. This division will become more competitive in the coming years, especially as the Dodgers have to make tough roster decisions with aging veterans, and teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres welcome all their young, highly-touted prospects to the big leagues. But until then, the West runs through Los Angeles.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
OK, I know I’m biased, but on some level you have to feel for Dodgers fans. Seven consecutive division titles, two World Series appearances, the second-most wins in the past decade and nothing to show for it. And they were cheated out of not one, but both World Series (though the Houston scandal is far more egregious). And then, right when the Dodgers add Mookie Betts and assemble the Avengers, a pandemic hits and almost cancels the season (I’m still not sure we’re even going to make it to October). OK, now I’m venting. But you see my point, no?
FanGraphs projects the Dodgers to win 36 games, while PECOTA projects 38 wins. Both are league-highs. The lineup features two MVPs, young and veteran talent and depth for miles. The rotation, even despite losing David Price, will still be a strength. The bullpen should be OK. It’s the Dodgers division to lose.
Player to Watch: Gavin Lux
So, after Lux played significant time at the end of the regular season and in the playoffs last year, everyone was more or less certain that the 22-year-old infielder would make the Opening Day roster as LA’s starting second baseman. Until yesterday, when Lux was optioned off the major league roster to the team’s alternate site at USC. This is likely due to Lux’s late arrival at Summer Camp and his struggles since arriving, so it feels nearly certain that Lux will make his way back to Dodger Stadium at some point this season. But it does put a damper on the hype surrounding one of the game’s top prospects, who is a popular pick for NL Rookie of the Year. He didn’t hit nearly as well as expected last year (.240/.305/.400), but his talent should be too much to pass up. He’ll play meaningful baseball this season.
Pitcher to Watch: Dustin May
As previously mentioned, David Price has opted out of the 2020 season. As a result, manager Dave Roberts needs to fill a spot in the rotation. Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urías and Alex Wood are projected to fill the top four spots, while Ross Stripling was recently announced as the team’s fifth starter. But whether he finds his place in the rotation or in the bullpen, May has the talent to become a difference maker. His long, lanky delivery makes it look like he’s whipping the ball to the plate, generating one of the best spin rates in the minors last year. In 34.2 innings, he struck out 32 batters and compiled an 86 ERA- and 66 FIP-, which would have tied for 26th and fifth among qualified pitchers last season. His movement, especially on his fastball, is fantastic, and he’ll probably get some Rookie of the Year looks as well if he gets enough time on the mound.
2. San Diego Padres
Oh, they’re coming. Maybe not in 2020, maybe not even in 2021. But they are on their way. A team without a division title or playoff appearance since 2006, Padres fans have seen more than their fair share of misery. But good times are close ahead, with an abundance of talented young players coming through the farm system. This team is so young that its key “veterans” include Manny Machado, 28, and Eric Hosmer, 30. Rising stars in Chris Paddack and Fernando Tatís Jr. headline San Diego’s young core, with prized prospects MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patiño, CJ Abrams, Luis Campasano and Taylor Trammell close behind. A surprisingly strong bullpen featuring Kirby Yates, Emilio Pagán and Drew Pomeranz will be Jayce Tingler’s best weapon, and a young lineup and rotation should show improvement. Projections range in between second and third, but gambling on the upside feels like a safe bet.
Player to Watch: Manny Machado
Tatís is going to be a star, but have we forgotten that Machado already is one? He didn’t exactly hit the ground running in his first year at Petco Park, but he still tallied 32 home runs and a 3.1 fWAR. He’s also an excellent defender at the hot corner, registering a positive DRS in every season while at third base. When Machado is at his best, he can be among the top players in all of baseball. It’s why San Diego signed him to a 10-year, $300 million contract in two offseasons ago. He’s just 28, so his best years might even be ahead of him. Tatís is getting all the buzz, and deservedly so, but don’t be surprised if Machado takes some of the spotlight back.
Pitcher to Watch: Chris Paddack
He has all the tools and the potential to be an ace. Tingler has already named the 24-year-old as the Padres’ Opening Day starter. He showed flashes of absolute brilliance in 2019, mixed of course with the expected struggles of any rookie. But Paddack is absolutely legit. He struck out 26.9% of batters faced last season, which would have tied him with Philadelphia Phillies ace Aaron Nola for 19th-best among qualified pitchers, and a 78 ERA- that would’ve ranked 20th best in baseball last year. Paddack needs to show improvement on his spin rate to throw his pitches more effectively, but his numbers speak for themselves. He, Gore and Patiño could be a frightening trio in the near future.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-backs suffer from the same problem that torments the other four teams in the NL West: they have to play in the same division as the Dodgers. I can’t imagine it’s very fun competing against a seemingly invincible powerhouse year in and year out. But you have to give credit to Arizona for trying in 2020. GM Mike Hazen acquired Madison Bumgarner, Kole Calhoun, Starling Marte and more in a busy offseason to try to get the D-backs back to the playoffs for the first time in three years. It’ll be a good team that benefits from playing the Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants 10 times each. But a 22.4% chance to make the playoffs from FanGraphs and a 24.8% chance from PECOTA doesn’t exactly inspire hope. There is talent here, but is the roster deep enough to push Arizona into October?
Player to Watch: Ketel Marte
The latest addition of “the best player you’ve never heard of” has arrived! Marte was dynamic in 2019, setting career-highs in home runs, wOBA, wRC+ and fWAR. Among qualified hitters, he ranked sixth in fWAR, seventh in wOBA and eighth in wRC+. He also struck out at a clip of just 13.7%, 18th best in baseball. 2019 was a massive leap in production for Marte, resulting in his first All-Star Game appearance. He’s just 26, and while there might be a bit of regression to the mean, the future looks bright for the middle infielder. He’ll play a key role for the Diamondbacks.
Pitcher to Watch: Robbie Ray
Ray has been the talk of Summer Camp in Arizona, as he’s made some noticeable changes to his windup, arm action and even his diet. Last week, Ray told reporters he “doesn’t know if [he’s] ever felt this good.” That’s a scary thought considering he struck out batters at a 31.5% clip last season and ranked in the 89th percentile in whiff percentage, according to Statcast. He needs to improve his command to cut down on his walks and limit home runs, but the changes to his mechanics should address that issue. If he can, the hype might very well be real, making Ray a sneaky Cy Young candidate.
4. Colorado Rockies
It’s a bit hard to believe the Rockies fell so swiftly from grace after back-to-back playoff appearances. But the reason lies within the front office, who repeatedly failed to add to a talented roster to compete for a title. It’s reached the point where even the team’s star, Gold Glove and All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado, has expressed his frustrations with GM Jeff Bridich. The core from those playoff teams is still there, with Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story still knocking the cover off the ball at Coors Field. But the pitching staff will always suffer from the thin Denver air, and the roster just isn’t deep enough to compete with the top teams in the National League.
Player to Watch: Brendan Rodgers
Rodgers struggled mightily in his first season in the bigs, hitting just two extra-base hits in 81 plate appearances before getting shut down in July and receiving shoulder surgery. The third overall pick in the 2015 draft, Rodgers has flashed brilliance in the minors, showing the ability to make hard contact and drive the ball with his exceptional bat speed. At Triple-A Albuquerque, he slashed .350/.413/.622 with 20 extra-base hits in just 37 games. Rodgers biggest problem, however, is a logjam in the middle infield, blocked by Story and Ryan McMahon. Rodgers will have to earn his playing time in 2020.
Pitcher to Watch: Daniel Bard
Bard has become the best story of Summer Camp. After not playing since 2013, Bard was informed by manager Bud Black last Friday that he had made the Opening Day roster. For a long time, Bard suffered from the yips, unable to consistently throw for strikes, constantly overthinking every time he took the mound. But at 35, he’s finally back in baseball, and it’s impossible not to root for him to succeed, no matter your team. “Looking back on it,” Bard told Yahoo! Sports, “my best days I had, during my previous struggles, the best days I had were not even close to my bad days now, is the way it feels. So that’s a good feeling.” Tip of the cap to you, Daniel.
5. San Francisco Giants
Call me biased, but the Giants are bad. It’s certainly intentional, as the Giants recover from some bad contracts and reload for a future even-year run. But don’t just take my word for it. FanGraphs projects just a 3.0% chance to reach the postseason. PECOTA? A mere 2.2%. Perhaps it’s payment for the historic run from 2010–2014, but times are tough at Oracle Park (though it will always be AT&T to me). And with Buster Posey opting out, this season could be even tougher. It’s possible top prospect Joey Bart finally makes his debut and becomes a ray of light in a dark season. Otherwise, it could be ugly.
Player to Watch: Mauricio Dubón
Dubon has the best chance of the Giants’ top prospects to make the Opening Day roster, especially after receiving some time late in the 2019 season. Dubón spent most of his time at second base last year, but his defensive versatility could allow him to see time at shortstop and even center field. Dubón came to San Francisco via the trade that sent Drew Pomeranz and Ray Black to Milwaukee, and hit .279/.312/.442 with four home runs in August and September. He’s not outstanding at anything in particular, but he’s well-rounded enough to be a solid contributor.
Pitcher to Watch: Jeff Samardzija
Samardzija had a renaissance of a season in 2019, posting a 3.52 ERA, his best mark since 2014, and a 6.95 K/9 over 181.1 innings. He’s no longer the ace-like arm he once was, one that was worth favored prospects in trades, but Samardzija showed he can still be a reliable starter that can eat innings. He’s entering the final season of his deal, so if he pitches well in the first month of the season, Samardzija could be dealt to a contender on the August 31 deadline for some potential future assets on the next good Giants team.
Reader, we made it. Six previews up, six previews down. Tomorrow, we get meaningful baseball. Rejoice.
P.S. Major League Baseball should drop local blackouts so everyone can watch his, her or their favorite team in 2020.
Stats and information courtesy of FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com.
Ethan Fore is a diehard Dodgers fan who just wants to see his team win. Once. Please. You can follow him on Twitter here.
