The Hunt For October is Shaping Up to Be the Best in Years

Major League Baseball’s playoff chase is set to go down to the final week, as more than half the league is in pursuit of a postseason spot.

Do you remember where you were on September 28, 2011?

There are days that remain vivid memories on the brains of sports fans everywhere. Michael Jordan’s last shot on June 14, 1998. The Miracle on Ice on February 22, 1980. Even O.J.’s Bronco chase on June 17, 1994.

September 28, 2011 may offer similar clarity for baseball fans.

You probably weren’t in the exact same situation as I was, however, unless of course you were also sitting in evening services for Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year.

But there was no way I could follow along with my rabbi’s Torah readings that night. Not a chance in hell. I was fixated on baseball scores.

You see, two teams in each league were vying for the Wild Card spot, and it had all boiled down to the last day of the season. The Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals had stormed back from massive deficits to tie the Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves, respectively, for the final playoff spot on the last day of the season.

You may remember that being one of the most exhilarating days in baseball history. The Rays overcame a 7–0 Yankees’ lead to walk-off against New York, just minutes after the Baltimore Orioles’ walked-off against the Red Sox at Oriole Park. In Atlanta, the Braves faltered late, and the Cardinals, led by Chris Carpenter’s complete game, snagged the NL Wild Card. Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci summed it up beautifully:

“They will go down as the most thrilling 129 minutes in baseball history. Never before and likely never again — if we even dare to assume anything else can be likely ever again — will baseball captivate and exhilarate on so many fronts in so small a window the way it did September 28, 2011.”

Eight years later, and Major League Baseball finds itself in a similar situation with just a month to go. Six teams in the American League, and 10 (!!) in the National League are competing for just five spots in each league. To understand what’s happening, let’s break down each race and each team, from the two-horse AL Central to the wide-open NL Wild Card.

AL Central:

I miss the simpler times of early June, when the Minnesota Twins were 11.5 games up on the Cleveland Indians, all seemed well, and brilliant writers gushed about the Twinkies. Now, other brilliant writers are raining on Minnesota’s parade, and rightfully so.

Since June 4, the Indians are 45–21, the best record in that stretch, and the Twins are just 36–30. With Cleveland making moves for powerful outfield bats in Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes, Minnesota played small ball, acquiring middle relief help in Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. And the result? After two months, the Indians have closed the gap, and now sit just 2.5 games back of the Twins.

Baseball Prospectus projects the teams to finish within five games of each other, giving Minnesota the edge. FiveThirtyEight and FanGraphs project a far more narrow finish, with just three games separating the two teams.

The Twins have the easiest strength of schedule remaining, and will soon receive aid in the form of Nelson Cruz and Byron Buxton returning from the injured list, and they can’t come quick enough. Meanwhile, the Indians have the fourth easiest strength of schedule remaining, and will try to ride this hot streak all the way to October.

AL Wild Card:

Perhaps even more cluttered than the Central, the Wild Card offers chaos in its own way. The loser of the AL Central duel will almost certainly be thrust into this insanity, joining the Rays and Oakland A’s are competing for two spots.

(I could include the Red Sox here, but they’re 6.5 games out of the second spot, and look as bad as they have all year. Anything can happen, but I wouldn’t hold my breath if I was a Sox fan.)

Let’s say the Twins hang on and win the Central. FiveThirtyEight projects a four-game gap between the remaining three teams. FanGraphs’ projections separates Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Oakland by just three games, and Baseball Prospectus only projects a two-game gap between the three teams.

Of course, most baseball fans — excluding those who actually root for these four teams — are begging for a tie, so let’s explore. What would happen if we saw a tie?

Let’s say that the Indians hold sole possession of the first Wild Card, and the Rays and A’s tie for the second one. There are a variety of tie-breaking procedures to determine the host, but Tampa and Oakland would play a one-game playoff in a matchup of the two worst stadiums in sports. And the winner gets another one game playoff! How fun!

Let’s now assume that the Indians, Rays and A’s all finish with the same record. The three teams will be broken down into A, B, and C designations by yet another tiebreaking system. Teams A and B will play each other for the first spot, and Team C will play the loser for the second spot.

Got it? Good. Anything beyond this is exponentially unlikely (and also exponentially more awesome), so I won’t bore you with the details. Onto the Senior Circuit.

NL Central:

There must be something they’re putting in the water in the Midwest. But, while the Twins and Indians seem like two of the best teams in baseball, their National League counterparts will be allowed a playoff team more or less by default.

The Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers are middling teams riddled with flaws, and yet at least one gets to make the postseason because of divisions. Cheers to tradition!

Now, I should cut these teams some slack, given that they play in possibly the most balanced division in the sport. No teams tanking for a rebuild (see: Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins), and no teams resembling something “super” (see: Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers).

But, I mean, come on. Not one of the three respected projection sites I listed above projects any team to finish with more than 87 wins. Since 2010, only two teams (Detroit in 2012 and Texas in 2015) won their divisions with fewer than 90 wins.

The silver lining here is the possible pandemonium that might ensue. Baseball Prospectus projects Chicago and St. Louis to finish with the same record, which would result in a Game 163. Should all three teams tie, we would see a scenario similar to the AL Wild Card scenario mentioned above, except the winner of the Team A-Team B matchup would play Team C to determine the division champion.

NL Wild Card:

If you thought the previous three playoff chases were crazy, you’re in for a treat. In a race that lives up to its name, the NL Wild Card is the purest form of true chaos this season.

Seven teams are within 4.5 games of each other, including two of the NL Central teams not currently holding the division lead.

As of August 18, the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs occupy the two spots, but a lot can change in 30+ days. Plus, the teams behind them include the Milwaukee Brewers, who are lucky enough to have MVP candidate Christian Yelich on their team; the Philadelphia Phillies, who have a currently angry Bryce Harper; and the New York Mets, who won 13 of 14 at one point and saw their manager and one pitcher threaten a reporter this season, which should tell you all you need to know about them.

Throw in two average NL West teams in the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks and you have absolute madness.

FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and FiveThirtyEight all project each team to finish with at least 80 wins, but all three give the first Wild Card edge to Washington. They also all agree on the second place team in the Central (either Chicago or St. Louis) to at minimum qualify for a Game 163 for the second spot.

FanGraphs gives the Central division win to the Cubs, but projects that the Mets and Cardinals will tie for the second spot, forcing a Game 163. One can only hope for this scenario, but a true fan dreams of even more anarchy.

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Like Verducci says, baseball fans may never again see a day like September 28, 2011. The odds are just too small.

But 2019 offers a glimpse of what might be another wild finish. And maybe, just maybe, we’ll be lucky enough again.

This article was originally published on August 22, 2019 on beunpluggd.com.